TLT put in a clear show of strength in the last two days, but I don't expect that to continue past 126 (or 126.3). The trendline, resistance line and consolidation boxes are shown above. Don't forget how persistent the TLT uptrend was. If this is a secular downtrend or even a significant cyclical downtrend it could be just as persistent.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Although I would like $LL to consolidate another day or two before breaking upward I think it may happen tomorrow and I will get long if it does so after 10:30am.
I would really like to get short $AET once it is below that upper trendline. Yesterday's rise was on unimpressive volume and it's longer term trend is firmly downward right now.
Friday, August 3, 2012
CHK has been in that secondary downtrend for 95 trading days. That doesn't mean it will break, but I will be very interested if it does.
DVN is in a similar position, it's my understanding that they have more oil exposure than CHK and should have more stable earnings from being less of a leveraged company.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
Since the big gap down I have been looking for a good risk/reward entry on $CMG. The last five days have been in this downtrend on the hourly chart. A break above (especially if it chops for a day or two more beforehand) will probably be where I get long with a stop below today's low.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
POT has been chopping in this box above the 200 day ma since July 3rd. After the head fake break down this morning it is peaking out above the last 7 days of downtrend. If it can hold near there until tomorrow morning the 200 day should start sloping up. I like the bullish picture.