Concise Trading

thoughts on SPY June 3, 2011

2011-06-03T10:07:00.000-07:00

That is not too bad of a downward angle. Also we are roughly in the bottom third of the channel. It's too late to get short I think and too rough to get aggressively long. I will continue to hold my stocks and sell calls against them for income right now.

BTW I bought back my WNR calls at the beginning of the day and bought a little more WNR. I also got short EDZ via options (that means I am mildly long emerging markets).

Beginning again

2011-06-02T22:01:00.000-07:00

My first trading post in a long time; no re-introduction paragraph, just back to trading.

In the recent downturn I have had to cut several losers MOTR and JDSU.

The market is difficult right now and I know that the sharp move lower starting 2 days ago has a lot of people pinned in losing positions.

I only have 3 stocks that I am still really committed to CCJ, WNR and VCLK. Here goes my reasonings

CCJ
Japan, Fukushima, German politics... all of the news headlines are set against the stock, but the stock is outperforming nicely over the last week

That chart doesn't look like nuclear disaster. It looks like years of pre-ordered urnaium.

WNR

I am long WNR for one reason. Profit margins.
My strategy for trading is to short some calls against my long position in the stock whenever I am up on the stock. This is because it has such a high beta. I am making a lot more by trading in and out of the calls instead of just holding the stock.

VCLK

VCLK is a new position for me. I am buying it because it too is outperforming recently while the markets turn down.

You can see that this is in a range between the blue lines. Also if you look at a daily chart you may see that VCLK looks like it may have worked off the selling pressure that came in after their recent earnings beat.

adieu,
Ryan

Evolution of my blog

2009-08-11T11:24:00.000-07:00

I have made my blog almost all option spread trades. I have also realized that a blogger account is a boring looking sight and is kinda annoying.

So for now I am posting my spread plays on Ibankcoin.com in the peanut gallery under the name discoordinated

http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/author/discoordinated/

I am gonna leave my posts there since it is a better site.

God bless,
Ryan

BAC spread #1 adjustment #2

2009-07-23T10:07:00.000-07:00

I adjusted the BAC spread today. I made it evenly matched. Selling all the rest of my Aug. 13 calls for $0.51.

Going good so far.

Ryan

BAC spread #1 adjustment

2009-07-21T09:54:00.000-07:00

I bought back one contract of the BAC AUG 13 call today. I bought it back at $0.38 (from $0.48).

I do this to close a little bit of profit and to make the spread more flexible (in case it moves against me. Now I have roughly 8 short 14 calls for every 10 long 13 calls.

Ryan

BAC spread #1

2009-07-20T11:43:00.000-07:00

I sold a Bear call Credit spread on BAC today.

I bought 10 Aug 14 BAC calls for $0.23

I sold 9 Aug. 13 calls for $0.48

Ryan

DELL spread #2 continued

2009-07-20T10:24:00.000-07:00

I sold the last 25% of the Aug. 13 calls on DELL today. I sold them for $0.50.

As it stands My average price on the (short) Aug. 13 calls is $0.43. My average price on the(long) Aug. 14 calls is $.14.

looking good so far.

Ryan

DELL spread #2

2009-07-17T12:46:00.000-07:00

I opened another bear call credit spread on DELL.

I bought the Aug. 14 call for $0.14 and sold the Aug. 13 call for $0.40

I did this in a 4/3 ratio. I bought 4, 14 calls for every 3, 13 calls I sold. This way if the position goes against me I can sell some more premium.

PS yesterday's SPY spread was up over 20% overnight.

Ryan

SPY 95, 96 spread

2009-07-17T09:40:00.000-07:00

I am very happy to see that the SPY spread that I switched into is almost to complete profit.

It more than makes up for my losses on the one I stopped out of yesterday. As we sit now there is resistance at the 94.40 level that the SPY would have to clear convincingly to even cause this trade to lose some of it's profit.

I am gonna hold on and see before closing it out.

Ryan

new SPY spread

2009-07-16T12:48:00.000-07:00

I closed my first losing credit spread today. Closed out my $SPY 94, 95 bear call credit spread.

I lost a small chunk, but I am not worried. I am flexible here since I was able to close it out and move into a 95, 96 version of the same trade.

I made it a bigger position than the 94, 95 spread was. If we close below 95.20 tomorrow, then I stand to make more than double what I lost today.

Still holding that SDS spread, even though it's against me. (it's very small)

Ryan

DELL spread closed

2009-07-16T11:18:00.000-07:00

DELL is having a very good day and my credit spread was very much profitable, so I went ahead and bought back the July 13 calls for $0.04 down from $0.22.

Including the other calls which I bought for $0.04 and commissions, I netted %16 in 3 days on this trade!

Ryan

SPY spread

2009-07-15T12:01:00.000-07:00

I sold the July 94 SPY call for $0.48 today and bought the 95 call for $0.22

The SPY must close Friday above 94.25 for this to lose and considering the vix divergence today I think we have at least some consolidation to go through before possibly going higher.

Ryan

SDS bear spread adjustment

2009-07-15T08:47:00.000-07:00

I sold the second half of the SDS 54 puts today for $0.80. Now as long as SDS closes Friday above 53.50 I should be good to collect on this trade.

If SDS closes Friday above $54 then I will have collected %31 on my capital risked.

Glad I left this one unpaired at first.

My Dell bear spread is also doing very well.

Ryan

DELL credit spread

2009-07-13T10:53:00.000-07:00

Chart is DELL vs. MSFT and the broader Nasdaq today. Also Dell sold off in the after market.

I sold a bearish credit spread on DELL today.

I sold 6 of the July 13 call for $0.22

I bought 7 of the July 14 call for $0.04

Dell is a sad, sad stock compared to the rest of the tech sector today and I am betting that condition stays at least partially true until the end of the week.

Ryan

advancement

2009-07-06T15:26:00.000-07:00

I have been making lots of perceived progress in my trading style (unfortunately learning from my mistakes instead of just learning from books).

I find myself focusing on
1.) Where a stock will not go (instead of where I think it will go).
2.) What is the total possible loss on my trade.
3.) How do I find the worst traders and bet against them.

I think my days of holding common stock over night may be done with.

I think my days of collecting premium on options positions are just beginning.

And to follow that I have another spread trade that I started today (after netting more than 1% per day returns on the last two spreads I put on the blog)

I bought the July 53 SDS put for $0.35
I sold half as many July 54 SDS puts for $0.50

It's a net debit of $0.20 per 2 contracts as of now. I am planning on selling another round of the 54 puts around $0.75 making the position a net credit of $0.55 per 2 contracts. I am free and clear from there as long as SDS closes above $54 next week. More than a %50 return.

I know this trade is a lot harder to understand than me buying a lot of puts on LEH or LEN. I also think it's a lot better and worth understanding.

good day,
Ryan

SPY 20 sma update

2009-06-30T10:48:00.000-07:00

In the chart above, you can see that this is now by far the longest we have spent below the 20 sma since March 12th. Also this morning the SPY sold hard from where it opened just above the 20 sma.

I think this market is neutral at best.

Ryan

SPY still below it's 20 day

2009-06-25T12:00:00.001-07:00

Click on pic to see comment.

Also note that DIA and IWM are in the same situation. Only the QQQQ is at it's 20 sma as I write this (and that may not last the day).

I think this sets the stage for the market to clear out lower at least another 5% or so.

INTC position adjustment

2009-06-25T11:20:00.000-07:00

I adjusted my INTC debit spread to make it a little more bearish.

I bought back half of my Jul 16 puts at $0.47. I am looking for the stock to drop some before I short them again. I still have my Jul 15 puts on INTC.

Ryan

WRES

2009-06-23T12:00:00.000-07:00

I am short WRES now at $2.19, with a stop at $2.55, The chart is ugly and it's low risk. My eventual target is $1.12

On another note, my Bull put spread is performing well, it's flat so far and INTC is outperforming the market today.

I am trying hard to hedge my short bets right now, I feel the market will go down a lot, but I have to trade more neutral than that.

Ryan

INTC

2009-06-22T11:44:00.000-07:00

I am hedging some of my bearish put positions with a spread on INTC. I am Long the July 15 put at $0.33 and short the July 16 put at $0.79

INTC has no real debt, and practically has a monopoly in it's market. I figured that if I am gonna hedge long I will do it this way.

ACI Jun. 17 calls

2009-06-18T10:29:00.000-07:00

I bought back my ACI June 17 calls. I picked up 23% on this trade in a few days. Very happy with it.

Ryan

California

2009-06-17T12:26:00.000-07:00

Take a look at this VIX chart and you tell me if it matches with this article http://investment-blog.net/california-is-13-of-us-gdp/

I am sitting here looking at charts (stocks and bonds) I can see very little recognition of the California situation.

California is roughly 13% of US GDP. I live here and I can tell you that we won't be keeping that up.

You would think people would react to California quickly crawling toward bankruptcy. What is the disconnect (hyperinflation, misplaced confidence...?)

ACI options play

2009-06-16T08:45:00.000-07:00

I am selling some premium in ACI. It's just an income trade. I am selling the ACI June 17 call for .60, then I am buying the ACI June 18 call for .25.

Both will probably expire worthless and I will net the .35, the good thing about it is that I only use about $100 of my buying power for each set of contracts. I put out $100 and get $35.

Ryan

CROX stopped out

2009-06-11T09:54:00.000-07:00

Stopped out of CROX at 4.28, ah well at least I kept it small.

Ryan

WFC Technical analysis June 10, 2009

2009-06-10T14:56:00.000-07:00

Click on picture to expand and see 2 possible swing trades.

Ryan

C, a government owned black box

2009-06-10T13:22:00.000-07:00

With a lot of people recommending long the banks (even the government owned ones), I thought I would take a look at what the technicals are telling us about C, since it is the biggest.

Click on the chart to expand and read my comments.

CROX chart weekly

2009-06-10T07:49:00.000-07:00

Here is the crox chart. Click on it to expand and see my comments.

Ryan
PS If this blog has been a help to you, then please check out some of the ads on the left.

another short CROX

2009-06-05T11:33:00.000-07:00

I added CROX to my short portfolio. DDRX is still smoking upward (no big deal, my position is tiny) My CROX short is in at $3.28 my stop is at 4.28, my target is 1.19.

keep em coming,
Ryan

DDRX management

2009-06-04T08:34:00.001-07:00

I am short a very small amount of DDRX. It's insanely volatile and has a very small float. I am under water on the trade right now, but I am not worried, because it's exactly what I expected from the trade. I may add some more but I will keep my position very small right now.

Ryan

PS dang it! just as I typed this sucker out I tried to add some to my position and found out there are no more shares to short. ah well.

finally a new idea DDRX

2009-06-03T07:19:00.000-07:00

I am finally posting a new short. I would buy long term puts on it, but I can't since it is not optionable. I am shorting DDRX at 16.40.

The company is not all that bad, but it is overvalued. It has risen 4140% since March 9. It has a small float so the shorts have gotten killed several times in this stock. I think the key here is not to over commit. Just putting on a small position will allow me to hold it.

Ryan

VIX on May 28, 2009

2009-05-28T07:15:00.000-07:00

The vix looks like this at 10:13am East coast. Notice it's already past that resistance and may test the next high (which is pretty far up there). I think that over the next few days, I have got to pay close attention to the VIX during my day trades. My goal is to agree with the VIX direction in my trading.

MSFT, AAPL

2009-05-25T20:59:00.000-07:00

I had a request for my observations on a MSFT chart. I did the AAPL chart as well. Tech is so much healthier than most other sectors. If we are going to have a sustainable market, these are important stocks.

As always, click on the chart for a bigger view.

AAPL chart

MSFT chart.

Furthering my theme

2009-05-22T09:35:00.000-07:00

Since March 6, 2009 The dollar is down (vs a wide basket of other currencies) by 11%. In the same time the S&P 500 is up 32%.

Normalized, that means the S&P is only up 21% from the bottom.

As well, the S&P has failed to rally significantly during the last 3 days while the dollar has continued to fall apart.

As rates on treasuries go up, there will be pressure to up rates on mortgages, that is bad news in an environment where jobless claims keep going higher and foreclosures are accelerating.

Ryan

UUP and rally

2009-05-20T07:43:00.000-07:00

UUP is a significant factor for this rally. Look how steep it's current down trends are. It is still above that major support area from December 2008 (marked by the first blue rectangle).

Here are two things that could happen.

1.)We could stabilize here, break the downtrend line and form a higher low than the Dec. 2008 low.

2.)We could break the support from Dec. 08 and go into free fall. (gas and commodities way up if this happens)

On a day like today, lots of people are going on about how the market is rising because of the improving economy and "better than expected" type news. If the dollar had been sideways since the market low on March 9, then you can cut roughly 11% out of the rally, reducing the rally to a much more normal bear market rally. That's not all that impressive considering we had record short interest to fuel it.

Still, I don't think my home builder puts will get much love unless they start bankrupting or the dollar can at least trade sideways.

Ryan

GDP and treasuries= problem

2009-05-17T21:47:00.000-07:00

I built some macro graphs. They say that treasuries are a waste of money. I know this is not new news, but in today's world of poor and bipolar reporting on the financial crisis, it's worth repeating the obvious.

What you will see in the following charts is that our GDP trend sucks. Having a bad GDP trend has resulted in 3 other negative US trends.

1.)Many other countries are quickly becoming our rivals. The average GDP of the BRIC countries has risen (as compared to US GDP) by roughly 50% since 2000. I assume this trend will be interrupted by the crisis. What is also important is that I don't think this trend will be destroyed by the crisis.

2.) The US is doubling down on itself. you can tell from chart 1 that instead of upping production we have been upping debt. Whether you are in the inflation or deflation crowd, I think we can all agree that chart 1 has to change before any sustainable recovery of wealth can happen in the US.

3.) We have been relying heavily on other countries to fund us as we double down on our selves (translation: China has been buying our treasuries so that we can up our debt in lieu of upping our GDP). Now that the crisis is happening we have really removed any reason for China and others to continue to support us this way.

Federal de-leveraging may or may not happen, but interest rates really should go up on treasuries substantially.

PS interest rates rising on treasuries should raise mortgage rates as well, possibly before housing prices stabilize...that's a another troublesome area I will be writing about soon.

Above is US GDP divided by US debt.

Above is US GDP divided by Chinese GDP.

Above is US GDP divided by Brazilian GDP

Above is US GDP divided by Russian GDP

Above is US GDP divided by Indian GDP

SPY range bound between support and trend

2009-05-15T08:22:00.001-07:00

I would be kinda surprised if we get out from between those two lines today.

SPY obvious

2009-05-14T07:32:00.000-07:00

Often the more obvious things in the market are the things to keep paying attention to.

Here are the obvious things today.

1.)We have clearly broken the uptrend line that had been valid since the March lows.

2.)We are testing the 20 day moving average.

I would expect us to hold the 20 day at least for today. If we get a good rally today, then I would look at it as an opportunity to buy puts on PPD, LEN, KBH, MTH, GS.

SPY May 14, 2009

2009-05-13T09:12:00.001-07:00

Today's entire trading range, so far, is at a price level below the previous six days. You think the buyers from the last six days feel a little pressure to sell?

UUP is stabilizing as well.
Ryan

SPY lower high

2009-05-12T09:17:00.000-07:00

This trend line may provide good short entries.

Ryan

SPY selling off above trend

2009-05-12T06:51:00.000-07:00

Let's keep it in perspective. SPY is selling off hard, but it's all above the trend line. I am not bullish, but I am not very bearish either.

SPY May, 11, 2009

2009-05-11T08:58:00.001-07:00

That 89.85-90 level still seems to be the most important support recently.

Ryan

TBT at decision point

2009-05-08T09:42:00.000-07:00

TBT is looking very impressive. Treasuries are a joke, the Chinese know it and no matter what spin you put on it they are getting less and less interested.

The chart here looks neutral to me. If we can consolidate to break that trend line or move higher I would become much more bullish on TBT.

UUP and it's effect on stocks

2009-05-07T10:39:00.001-07:00

UUP has been weakening, which is bullish for stocks. However it is at important support. If the support holds, then it's bearish for SPY and QQQQ.

Interestingly UUP has held up today, while TBT rises strongly. That means the dollar is strengthening even while treasuries sell off...whu?

SPY another look at the super trend

2009-05-07T10:24:00.001-07:00

SPY May, 7 2009

2009-05-07T08:50:00.000-07:00

The sell off has been strong this morning. I would be careful getting short though. We are still above that strong uptrend and support at 89.85.

SPY's many uptrend's and very significant support

2009-05-06T09:11:00.000-07:00

I drew all those trend lines from the last 3 days to show that momentum continues very strongly upward (obvious I know). I also wanted to show that 89.85 (the thick white line) is important to all those trend lines and is a significant support area.

Ryan

SPY, May 5, 2009 triangle

2009-05-05T10:11:00.001-07:00

Now we are forming a triangle. It's gotta resolve one direction or another. I will trade with it.

Ryan

SPY May, 5 2009

2009-05-05T09:22:00.000-07:00

That lower trendline is below VWAP, making it more significant if it breaks on volume.

If we get above yesterday's high, I don't see any reason it won't squeeze the shorts again, even though we are so extended.

Ryan

SPY late day update

2009-05-04T11:41:00.000-07:00

broke a shorter term uptrend from the last two days.

SPY May 4, 2009

2009-05-04T11:14:00.000-07:00

We are extremely extended to the upside and if we break that support line I think it makes a good short day trade.

I wouldn't put it out of the question that we go up either.

Ryan

FSLR Technicals + SPY

2009-05-04T10:29:00.000-07:00

The SPY uptrend is still in tact and very healthy looking this afternoon. FSLR never even started to fill that gap I charted the other day. I am very happy right now that I am not short FSLR.

Sometimes it's the trades you don't take that are the best.

Ryan

SPY super trend

2009-05-01T12:37:00.001-07:00

Looking at that daily trend line. If we keep that trend in tact through May, then I believe it would be the sharpest two month rally in US history.

FSLR since gap

2009-05-01T11:54:00.000-07:00

Click on the chart to see my comments on FSLR. I have no position right now.

SPY

2009-05-01T09:23:00.000-07:00

Not seeing many trend lines other than the ones on the daily chart. I see clear support and resistance though.

I have been very surprised that the market didn't run farther with more volume after breaking above 875.
Ryan

3 trend lines since March

2009-04-29T08:55:00.000-07:00

I see 3 trend lines since March 9.

It's unusual to see two sharp up trends broken, only to see a third formed.

PS. if this blog has been a help to you, please check out one of the ads on the right side or leave me a comment. lemme know who you are!

SPY apr. 28, 2009

2009-04-28T09:54:00.000-07:00

That's the trend line I am watching today. Times on chart are west coast.

2009-04-23T11:05:00.000-07:00

This from the calculated risk blog. It shows that there is really no reason to be buying home builders now. The market is not that forward looking.

I am staying with my LEN January 2010 puts.

Ryan

5 day intra day trends SPY

2009-04-23T09:48:00.000-07:00

This is where I see the lines over the last few days.

SPY April 22, 2009

2009-04-22T22:24:00.000-07:00

Broken trend line, followed by touching the underside of the trend line and then a sell off.

I think you can safely say that if we are going to trend up from here, it will be at a much more reasonable pace than we have set so far. I am still bearish.

Ryan

LEAP idea

2009-04-21T11:26:00.000-07:00

I am looking into LEAP puts on PPD. There are a lot of reasons to be short PPD (look at http://tinyurl.com/dm3jll for a short version of why).

This stock has a high short interest and is already down big, so it's important to note that it will likely be a volatile trade and take some time to work itself out.

I am looking at the Jan. 25 put. I would like to buy it for around $4.25

It's important for me not to buy the whole position here. I will be buying just 20% of what I eventually want to get.

My price target for the underlying stock is $15.

Ryan

SPY

2009-04-21T09:07:00.000-07:00

Here is the morning's important trend line and support. Both are above VWAP. Times on chart are West Coast.

New format for my blog

2009-04-20T21:54:00.001-07:00

I have messed around on this blog posting all kinds of to-the-point trading information. I just wanted to let you guys know that I will be getting more focused with my content.

1.) I will keep posting important trend lines from the daily and intra day charts. (like I have been doing the last couple weeks).

2.) I will keep posting my ideas for LEAP trades (ie. the home builder puts, the investment bank puts, the deposit bank puts, and the 3x etf puts)

3.) I will not be posting individual day trades, except maybe on stocktwits.com under my name discoorinated.

Hope this helps you know what you can expect to find on the pages of this blog. I also want to encourage you to leave me a comment, a photo of your cat or anything else. I would love to know more about my readers.

Thanks,
Ryan

Trend lines

2009-04-20T10:13:00.000-07:00

The very clear trend line on the SPY that I have been watching for weeks now is officially broken.

Ryan

SPY to test trend again

2009-04-17T08:48:00.000-07:00

I only made money shorting SRS a bit again yesterday. Today, I am looking for a break of the trendline below and a confirming lower high, then I will be long BGZ.

All times on chart are West Coast

Ryan

2:30PM eastern and a new high

2009-04-16T11:39:00.000-07:00

I am looking at a new high at 2:30pm easter, but I can't buy it yet. We ran through really fast. I am not chasing as of now.

Ryan

SPY indecision

2009-04-16T09:58:00.000-07:00

Notice three things
1.) We are currently holding above that, all important, trendline.
2.) We are above the 5 day moving average
3.) We have not yet made a new high above the April 13 high.

Number 1 and 2 are very bullish (though it doesn't make any fundamental sense to me). Number 3 is neutral.

2 scenarios.
1.)If we break to and hold a new high, the shorts will gets insanely squeezed and we could very well go higher.
2.)If we break the trendline and the 5dma is declining, then it looks like a very nice short (one I was unfortunately early to).

trends of the day

2009-04-15T10:42:00.001-07:00

These are the trendlines and suppor/resistance lines I am looking at today. After being short SRS this morning (IE long IYR) I am interested in getting long BGZ (IE short SPY) if we get solidly below that bottom trendline.

SRS

2009-04-15T09:47:00.000-07:00

I was short SRS this morning and covered around 34.80. I am amazed the market doesn't go down, but in the mean time I have got to trade some bullish plays (like shorting SRS)for day trades, to make up for my poorly performing puts.

Ryan

States rights!

2009-04-14T22:52:00.000-07:00

2009-04-13T08:30:00.000-07:00

A break below this triangle this morning, would also be below the VWAP, I think it's a good looking short, or maybe get long some TZA if it happens.

Ryan

free VWAP

2009-04-12T22:39:00.000-07:00

Wanted to post a resource that I found very helpful for day trading. It's a free, real-time, VWAP service. You can find it at http://www.bestfreecharts.com/

If you are unfamiliar with VWAP or how to use it, then follow this link

http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/11/institutional-trading-benchmark.html

If you are a day trader it's really worth your time to learn to use the VWAP. learning that has upped my day trading more than anything else.

Smigfarthen!

2009-04-09T17:24:00.000-07:00

Say it over and over to yourself Ryan, never buy an underperformer for a day trade!

I think I made $8 day trading today. I made almost 3% on several ERY trades (ERY was above it's VWAP). I lost about 3% on SRS (SRS was below it's VWAP)

I am an idiot. Next trading day, I am not giving away my profits to something under it's VWAP.

Ryan

SPY and ERY

2009-04-09T10:13:00.000-07:00

If we break this trendline, then I am looking to get long ERY for a day trade.

Ryan

PS. I cry at the WFC fraud

SPY are SRS day trade idea

2009-04-08T09:47:00.001-07:00

If that trendline breaks after a lower high, and SRS is above today's VWAP, then I will be getting long SRS again today. Hopefully, it will be my second good day trade in SRS.

Ryan

PS The times at the bottom of the chart are wrong, because I am on the west coast. It's about 1pm on April 9th, 2009 on the east coast.

TZA

2009-04-07T10:30:00.001-07:00

I am looking for TZA to pull back some so I can get in for a day trade. I am hoping to get it around 44.40, but I think it may just run without me.

Happy to see my BGZ coming back a bit today.

Ryan

PS LEN is dead!

back again

2009-04-06T09:18:00.000-07:00

I haven't been posting cuz the internet is not up at my house. Also, my lovely wife has had a lot going on with her family which was more important than trading last week.

Besides, last week looked ugly for my long term puts, so who wants to stare at that all day.

I am back trading again today and I am very happy to see where the market is (not really worried about my shorts). I know my stops and will bail if I am wrong. Until then, buying puts on LEN is my favorite new hobby.

LEN chart is absolutely ugly compared to the SPY the last 2 weeks. They keep losing money and sometime soon, I think they will have to start admitting more about what's going on with their subsidiaries.

Ryan

Unemployment is actually relevant

2009-04-01T10:52:00.000-07:00

It's funny, the market trades like unemployment is only slightly a problem. One thing I am sure of, Our system in the US doesn't work at this level of unemployment.

BGZ collar adjustment

2009-04-01T10:30:00.000-07:00

I adjusted my collar trade mid-day today. I bought back the calls and sold the puts, both at a profit (since, I am losing in the underlying stock). I also bought a little more of BGZ itself.

If BGZ trades back up to $62.50 (location of the VWAP on SPY) today, then I will look at starting to sell calls and buy puts again.

Ryan

Geithner (hold laughter please)

2009-03-31T23:13:00.000-07:00

This is making me think about holding Yuan via CYB instead of cash between trades.

SSO puts again

2009-03-31T11:56:00.001-07:00

I bought some more SOJ RP at $1.20 today. These suckers are the deal.

Ryan

PS don't get in the way of this last hour sell off. It will mess you up (I think)

SPY

2009-03-31T10:14:00.000-07:00

SPY 80 looks like the important level today. I will be getting short for a day trade, if we trade back below 80.

Ryan

LEN destroyer

2009-03-31T09:35:00.000-07:00

LEN is getting destroyed today and my January puts are starting to look so much better.

Ryan

PS. My blog is lonely, leave me a comment or check out an ad plz

getting short

2009-03-30T16:15:00.000-07:00

I am finally putting on a collar trade, not just options. I bought BGZ today at 65, sold the APR $85 call for $1.90 and bought the April 55 put for $2.50

My upside potential as a static collar trade is about 28% profit.

My downside potential is about 17%.

I like the bigger reward than risk on this trade. I wouldn't be surprised to see this trade go against me for a day or two, but I am very bearish on the market right now.

Ryan

PS people say that a gm bankruptcy, a major bank failure or a failure of sovereign debt from any number of countries could send this market to new lows….I think we may have two or three of those events coming soon, that’s an ugly thought.

PPD, SPG and SSO puts

2009-03-30T09:12:00.000-07:00

I sold a little of my PPD, SPG and SSO puts

I am up around 20% on each set of puts that I unloaded a bit of.

Ryan

6 month stock thesis

2009-03-28T11:01:00.000-07:00

My 6 month stock thesis

1.) Earnings

Trailing earnings for the past year are horrible for financials and good for energy. Those are the sectors that interest me the most, especially since I think we need growth in both sectors to produce higher employment levels.

Forward earnings look horrible for financials and bad for energy. I don't trust the unaudited, self leaked memo's from citi or others claiming that they are making money (I have no way of measuring operating income against probable write downs). I think last quarter's earnings will be the energy sectors peak for a while, it's downhill from here. Oil is still down 60% or more from where these companies made their previous big quarters.

I am dealing in generalities, but I think the rest of the market (including tech) will be very much hurt over the next two quarters by unemployment. Unemployment will effect overall market valuations for more than one or two quarters. I don't believe that the financial and energy sectors will be in a position to hire new employees this year.

2.) Mildly weakening dollar
If you look at the dollar measured by UUP (which is a pretty general picture of the dollar), it is neutral over the last year and a half. We are somewhere near the middle of a large range despite the recent Fed induced selloff.

If the dollar really fell apart, then the financials could pay off dollar denominated debt more easily and energy prices would rise (making money for the energy sector). The problem is that I don't see the dollar falling apart on the charts, it's fairly neutral. If it remains neutral or if it gains value, then I see the financials crashing again along with energy.

3.) Shortened time horizon
With the debt load that many large oil exploration, and financials still hold we need earnings to pick up very fast. Bills need to be payed 6 months ago. Since economies don't turn on a dime, dollar devaluation would be the easiest way to beat the clock. thousands lose their jobs everyday in America because corporate debt can't be paid. Which then increases the pressure and shortens the time horizon again.

So looking at the bad past/forward earnings, the neutral dollar, and extreme time pressure that we are under, I am bearish on Financials and bearish on Oil names. The more debt these companies have, the more bearish I am.

Ryan

PS I in no way support the actions of the fed and tresurie to devalue the dollar. While I believe it is the quickest way to bandage the problem, it would not be a lasting solution. It would also hamper real growth going forward.

Friday experiment update

2009-03-28T01:48:00.000-07:00

My friday call and put buys went like this

bull
WFMI (FMQ DA) bought $1.26
MYL (MYL DC) bought $0.20
CY (CY DG) bought $0.40
CREE (CQR DE) bought $0.98
CMG (CMG DN) bought $2.70

bear
MKC (MKC PF) bought $1.60
ESRX (XTQ PH) bought $0.85
BSY (no buy, wasn't optionable)
DAI (DAI PU) bought $0.95
GIS (GIS PJ) bought $1.70

At the end of the day, my basket was showing a slight loss. If I weren't doing this as an experiment, I wouldn't have bought GIS puts (it crossed above the 20 sma in a very bullish way. I also would have overweighted puts on ESRX since it's chart is so, so ugly.

Ryan

An experiment

2009-03-26T23:24:00.000-07:00

I am trying a new experiment. I will be paper-trading a basket of puts and calls. Each Friday.

1.)screen all mid cap and larger stocks
2.)pick the 5 most technically bullish
3.)pick the 5 most technically bearish

I will buy one slightly out of the money call on each bullish stock (trying to get an expiration about 20 trading days out).

I will buy one slightly out of the money put on each bearish stock (trying to get an expiration about 20 trading days out).

I will close any position that is up 100%. If time value becomes an issue, I will close other profitable positions at my discretion.

I will be buying all options mid day.

tomorrow's list

BULL
WFMI
MYL
CY
CREE
CMG

BEAR
MKC
ESRX
BSY
DAI
GIS

I will list prices and changes.

You are crazy, stock buyers

2009-03-26T09:55:00.001-07:00

If you are out there buying stock, please take a moment to register with the local asylum.

Ryan

My PPPUUUUUUUTTTTSSSSSS!

2009-03-25T12:47:00.000-07:00

No, way am I selling any of my puts today. I am holding these things. Some of them are looking pretty frikin good though.

Ryan

knutz

2009-03-25T08:50:00.000-07:00

You are knutz if you are buying for more than a trade right now. ha ha ha ha
Ryan

The Geithner plan

2009-03-25T00:04:00.000-07:00

http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/884-Reggie-Middletons-Overview-of-the-Public-Private-Investment-Program.html

https://self-evident.org/?p=502

Very good readings on the Geithner plan. Sorry, for some reason, the links wouldn't hyperlink so you will have to cut and paste them.

Ryan

SPY

2009-03-24T11:39:00.000-07:00

If we break 81.60 to the downside on SPY, then I am guessing some of yesterday's rally disappears.

Ryan

QLD

2009-03-24T09:41:00.000-07:00

Bought the July 26 put for $3.60 on QLD.

Ryan

UUP

2009-03-23T12:28:00.001-07:00

The dollar has stabilized, at least for the very short term. It's been trading sideways for three days now, which is starting to make me more short term bearish on the whole market.

You can track dollar trading with UUP

Ha ha, I write this in the face of a very big rally.

Ryan

SSO puts Suprise already!

2009-03-23T10:21:00.000-07:00

I bought the SSO puts SOJ RP for $1.20. I bought a butt load.

Ryan

KIM, SPG, PPD, puts (I am a boring repeat)

2009-03-23T10:10:00.000-07:00

I bought some more SPG April 30 puts for $1.65. My cost basis is actually $1.80 when you count that I took some partial profits the other day and am just now buying back in.

Holding my PPD puts and very VERY pleased to see the stock not participating in this rally.

I bought some KIM puts the May 5 puts, for $0.55.

I have only very briefly scalped BGZ long today, made a few pennies. I am waiting for a more oversold condition on BGZ to get long.

I will soon be buying puts on SSO. The reverse of my very successful FAZ and BGZ puts (lets hope it works as well again.

Ryan

SPY cover

2009-03-20T14:17:00.000-07:00

We have now completed my forecast from yesterday. The SPY broke it's steep uptrend and now is touching the more moderate uptrend line.

I made a bunch of cash the last couple days being long BGZ. I'm not long it now, but I am looking for more chances to day trade it long whenever the 15 minute chart looks oversold.

Suprisingly, my PPD puts are doing better than my SPG puts. I sold a little of the spg puts today at 2.60, up about 10%. The rest I am waiting on.

Home builders again

2009-03-20T09:20:00.000-07:00

I am adding to my long term puts on LEN, KBH, MTH, TOL and MDC.

I am mostly buying the Jan 2010 $10, $7.5 and $5 strike prices.

Ryan

SPY over extended

2009-03-19T00:08:00.001-07:00

Spy is clearly over extended, short term, to the upside. I am looking to try and get short if we break that steep uptrend. I won't be holding short past the more mild uptrend.

Bad Wednesday...I think

2009-03-18T10:10:00.000-07:00

I am seeing on SPY we have an unbroken uptrend from 3/06/09. We don't seem to be making a new high and the trend is very extended after touching the line and making new highs 4 times on the 15 minute chart.

Ryan